New Apple Stuff: Answers and Questions

If Apple events are judged purely by how radically new the new stuff is, today's San Francisco launch wouldn't rank as one of the all-time greats. The new video iPod was so similar to its predecessor that Steve Jobs dispatched with it quickly at the start of his talk. The biggest news about the new Nanos is that they're kind of like the iPod Minis they replaced. The second-generation Shuffle is really, really cute...and that's about it. Etcetera.

But even though the morning's biggest news--movie downloads from Disney--was widely expected, and its biggest surprise--a preview of a TV streaming box--also didn't exactly come out of left field, I left the Yerba Buena Center feeling both like some big questions had been answered and new ones were popping up to take their place.

First, some answers. We now know, or at least can reasonably assume, that...

There won't be a "real video iPod" in the next few months. The new model introduced today could well be short-lived, and might be the last full-sized iPod we ever see without a big screen. But it's presumably the iPod that anyone who buys an iPod for Christmas will get.

Apple does indeed want to enter the living room. It's felt inevitable for awhile now. It's already happened in some ways (I'l bet a meaningful percentage of iPod music is listened to in the living room, through one of the umpteen iPod stereo add-ons out there). But the "iTV" box, which streams video from a Mac or PC to a TV, is the first Apple entertainment product aimed squarely at taking on the world of living-room consumer electronics.

The iPod is, little by little, becoming a multifunction device. The games introduced today--Bejeweled, Pac-Man, and the like--won't change anyone's life. But they hint at the possibility of an iPod that goes beyond the consumption of audio and video. Betcha that when we do see an iPod with a larger screen, it may have more ambitious game offerings.

Apple may be worried about the iPod market starting to get a tad saturated. Or maybe not. But I took the fact that the company knocked $50 off the starting price for a full-sized iPod as a sign that it thinks that it needs to reach out to new customers who might never spring for a $300 device.

So much for issues I felt were answered today. I also left wondering about other matters...

Why did Apple pre-announce the iTV? As Jobs himself said, it's out of character for a company that likes to create a big bang by unleashing new items without warning. (I can't remember the last time that Apple told us about anything in advance other than operating system upgrades.) Actually, there's an obvious answers here--as a whole new box that doesn't replace a current Apple product, the iTV is more of an argument for buying into the iPod platform right now than a reason for postponing a buying decision. And perhaps Apple's willingness to preview it is a sign that the company doesn't see it as an iPod-like, game-changing breakthrough.

Will Apple (once again) legitimize stuff that others haven;t had much success with? We've had movie downloads for years via services like Movielink and CinemaNow; they haven't changed the world. And iTV looks extremely similar to Microsoft's Media Center Extender boxes (some of which have already come and gone, although an xBox 360 can double as one). If I had to guess at this very moment, I'd say that I suspect that Apple will be vastly more successful with movies than anyone else who's tried...but that iTV may turn out to be more of an interesting iPod accessory (and/or a rough draft of fancier products to come) than a breakout hit.

Where Disney goes, will others follow? Just as with last year's announcement of a few ABC shows as TV downloads, Apple is starting out with a limited amount of content from the Mouse Factory. It would seem to be a safe bet that once again, an Apple-Disney deal will lead to other movie owners making their content widely available...some through iTunes, some through other venues.

What will become of Front Row? The user interface on iTV looks kind of like that of Apple's Front Row media software...but only kind of like it. Will we see the iTV UI and the Front Row one merge into one consistent set of features you can use on PC or TV?

Does iTV mean we won't see a "living-room Mac?" Steve Jobs has sneered at the idea of a computer in the living room. iTV's wireless streaming will let PC content travel into the living room even if the computer itself remains elsewhere. But does its existence mean we won't see some sort of a Mac Mini tuned to sit next to a TV?

Will iTv morph into a powerful set-top box? It's easy to imagine a variant with its own hard drive and the ability to record TV--in other words, an Apple take on the DVR.

What about HD? Apple bumped up the resolution of its video downloads today to 640 by 480--enough to look reasonably decent. But in a world where the coolest TVs are HDTVs, "near-DVD quality" is more of an admission of weakness than a boast.

Will $10-$15 be a price range that people will be willing to pay for movie downloads? It is, roughly speaking, what you might pay for a DVD. But is it equivalent to 99 cents for a song track, which turned out to be a price that millions of folks found reasonable?

Will iTunes be iTunes forever? It's no longer the redundant-sounding iTunes Music Store. But as Apple delves deeper and deeper into the world of video, will it ever feel the need to take the "Tunes" out of its store's name? (Interesting to note that the iPod had a name that was agnostic as to its purpose, right from the start...)

Enough questions for now. Anyone out there want to chime in with any thoughts about possible answers?