Blu-ray Takes Lead in January Hardware Sales
According to data from NPD, Warner Brothers' pre-CES announcement that it would back Blu-ray exclusively seems to have bolstered Blu-ray Disc player sales, and dramatically lowered HD DVD player sales. The data (disclosed by The Digital Bits), notes that in the week ending 1/5/08, Blu-ray Disc player sales were at 15,257 units, and HD DVD player sales were at 14,558 units.
Fast forward to after the Warner announcement. The week ending January 12 showed Blu-ray Disc had increased its lead by 42 percent, to 21,770 units sold. HD DVD sales plummeted by 88 percent, to just 1,758 units. This data would seem to support the fact that Warner's announcement was indeed the tipping point that would ultimately determine the winner of the format war.
And no wonder. With Warner's support, Blu-ray is now the format-of-choice of more than 70 percent of Hollywood's content producers.
Of course, in looking at those numbers, Blu-ray's commanding lead wasn't the only thing that sprang to mind. I couldn't help but notice that overall unit sales were actually down between those two weeks: 29,815 vs 23,528. Assuming, for a moment, that the first week sales weren't just spiked by people using up holiday gift cards, that 21 percent drop in sales makes me think one of two things: Either a significant number of HD DVD buyers were so sensitive to the price of a player that they just won't up the ante for the extra bucks that a Blu-ray player might require over HD DVD; or--the more likely scenario--a significant number of HD DVD buyers were purchasing the player primarily because it was an upconverting DVD player.
I'll be interested to see what the January disc (software) sales data ends up showing once the month is out. My suspicion: We'll see the Warner announcement had some impact there, as well (already, early 2008 Nielsen VideoScan sales, as reported by Home Media Magazine, show HD DVD represented just 15 percent of the high-def discs sold through January 13). I'll also be interested in seeing whether the sales ratio for players maintains in the ensuing weeks, or if that 88 percent dropoff was an anomaly. The player sales numbers will be all the more interesting since Toshiba instituted aggressive price cuts on all three of its players as of January 13.
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I would think that the format war has depressed all DVD sales, hi-def and otherwise. As you say, it will be interesting to see what happens from here. Once the consumer feels confident that the format war is settled, I hope that things take off. Right now there isn't enough software in either camp to justify my buying a player. The other way to spur interest in hi-def DVD is to make set-top recorders available (as in Japan) that would serve the function that used to be served by VCRs, and more recently, DVRs with DVD-recording capability. Admitted, though, that would not be a mass market item, as the DVD-less TiVo continues to be more popular than DVRs that also record to DVD. A recession may also stymie or kill the adoption of Blu-Ray. It's a pity; I was really looking forward to buying one once the format war was over and enough software was available. Sony's $3000 Vaio media system with built-in Blu-Ray player/burner would interest me if DRM doesn't keep me from recording HDTV.
Although the technology is relatively new, if they are going to want consumers to switch, they are going to have to lower their prices. At BestBuy in Canada, a Blu Ray disc is 12.00 more than the regular DVD. I have 800 movies in my collection already that look really good on my 55 in plasma. I am not about to replace my collection or add to it at these prices. The players cost is not my issue obviously rather the media cost.
HD DVD is now the best choice--even if it is to be used only as an upconvert dvd player. An HD DVD player--which is also an upconvert dvd player, can be had for $128--and it comes with 5 HD DVD movies. My $98 Toshiba HD DVD player noticeably improves the picture detail of my standard dvds. This fact will drive HD DVD sales in 2008. Toshiba has new factories that can provide millions of the buggers.
Once enough HD DVD players are in the hands of consumers, HD DVD disk production can be ramped up quickly and much less expensively because HD DVD disks are made on pre-existing standard dvd making machines. Blu-ray disks are made on very high priced new machines that don't exist in any great numbers.
HD DVD players have the potential to be made smaller, simpler and therefore more dependable and lower cost yet. Blu-ray disks are easily ruined by minor surface scratches. I would cry over ruining a Blu-ray disk that cost me $30. HD DVD disks have the cost and durability advantage.
I'll tell you what it is... its the whole industry trying to back a whole new proceess to up the price of DVD's accross the board. There is an obvious advantage to HD DVD in every area except capacity. I mean how many lame bonus features can you cram on a movie anyway? HD DVD favors the consumer in that the equipment and the media is afordable while Blu-ray will force the consumer to pay $30 a disc now and most likely for years after the actual manufacturing reasons for the price increase have been recouped by the industry. Screw it... I'm waiting... my TV is only 720p anyways... I'll wait till I buy a new one.
i'm a gamer/movie addict/tech geek/nerd. why do i back bluray at the moment? because most of my favorite movies are on it. i wouldn't want to buy a hd player for my xbox 360 just to watch transformers. so my ps3 will do nicely. these sales are driven by people like us - who are adjusting to the best hdtv's as well as other tech/electronics/gadgets.
but yes, there are going to be people who wait and save their money for the future of tech. but a lot of people moved over to bluray already and its not like its going to stop snowballing. because people are already starting their bluray library.
i'm not replacing my dvd library with bluray - i'm just continuing my movie collection - mostly in bluray format. because, yes, i've been buying dvd's still. because there are some good deals, as well as some things that i couldn't find on bluray yet.
i just had to buy the star wars family guy dvd =P
ok, i have a toshiba HD-DVD, and a sony 70" XBR, the hddvd player does a fantastic job of upconverting the regular dvd video to 1080. so much that i will not be buying a blu-ray ever. the difference in the video quaility is not worth it! I get 22 HD channels off the air and over 100 off the satellite. The thing is that movies are not shot with HD cameras! so they are no where near the resolution or quality of HDTV, they are in fact somewher in between DVD and HDTV but certainly not to the point that takes my breath away like so many HDTV shows. even the NEWS is higher resolution than a movie that was shot on film and then scanned into a blu-ray or HD-DVD format.
Bottom line, love the upconverted dvd's to the point that i wont bother with a blu ray player, i get movies from netflix and if it comes in HD-dvd ill get that but i certainly wont be spending extra to buy hd or blue ray movies
i think that the poeple who are thrilled with the HD movies are new to HDTV.
ok, i have a toshiba HD-DVD, and a sony 70" XBR, the hddvd player does a fantastic job of upconverting the regular dvd video to 1080. so much that i will not be buying a blu-ray ever. the difference in the video quaility is not worth it! I get 22 HD channels off the air and over 100 off the satellite. The thing is that movies are not shot with HD cameras! so they are no where near the resolution or quality of HDTV, they are in fact somewher in between DVD and HDTV but certainly not to the point that takes my breath away like so many HDTV shows. even the NEWS is higher resolution than a movie that was shot on film and then scanned into a blu-ray or HD-DVD format.
Bottom line, love the upconverted dvd's to the point that i wont bother with a blu ray player, i get movies from netflix and if it comes in HD-dvd ill get that but i certainly wont be spending extra to buy hd or blue ray movies
i think that the poeple who are thrilled with the HD movies are new to HDTV.
Dream on genetrumbo - the game is over. Doesn't matter if Toshiba pumps out billions of the machines, the movie gods have spoken. Sounds like it was a more consumer friendly technology, but as we learned with Betamax, technology won't win the battle.
Rodgod is right on. DVDs look okay on HD, but nothing as breath taking as a real HD camera. I'll sit and watch NatGeo or DiscoveryHD for hours before I'll pop in a DVD. In fact, I may just cancel my Netflix until they start producing more real HD movies.
I agree with all those who say the whole thing is just another way to get people to spend more money. (Read economic stimulus package)
I have no desire to replace all the regular DVD's I already own with ones that cost 1.5 to 2 times as much!. Yes I receive hi-def channels and they look fantastic on my 61" 720p DLP. But using my Oppo 971 through DVI makes my regular DVD's "nearly" look as good. I do hate the format wars and love when new technology makes things cool, but HD-DVD or Blu-Ray is not worth the money just to get e little bit better quality. Besides, there are so few movies worth watching anymore that the whole movie industry is going to the dogs.
I'm glad that Blu-ray now has the advantage of having more support than HD-DVD; and that sales for the format have crushed HD-DVD. Consumers were getting tired of the so called format war, because many were afraid of buying a player that would soon enter the pages of history. Now that many newspapers, magazines, companies and other sources are claiming Blu-ray to be the new format to replace DVD's many feel confident in buying Blu-ray as their hi-def format of choice. Those that got an HD-DVD player, sorry, but at least the Blu players are dropping in price a bit.