Grand Theft Auto, Murder Most Foul, and the Fallacy of Misleading Vividness
The world is full of crazies with nutty agendas and lethal intentions, but none quite as collectively cuckoo as a media that can produce the illusory bulge of a bell curve trend from thin air. Case in point, a couple days ago the media pounced on a story about Thailand banning Grand Theft Auto after a 50-year-old taxi driver was allegedly murdered by a 19-year-old. Allegedly -- and given the fact that all the reporting on this so far has depended on statements from Thai officials, I do mean allegedly -- the teen confessed to robbing and murdering the taxi driver while attempting to recreate a scene from Grand Theft Auto.
Which Grand Theft Auto? Who knows. Incidentally, I don't recall an actual "scene" in any of the GTA games where someone robs a taxi driver, much less kills one. Sure, you can haul people out of cars, then go out of your way to dispatch them, but taxi-killing is neither required nor rewarded. Killing in the GTA games is in fact penalized. Nonetheless, the Thai government has decreed pending imports of Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto IV are illegal, as well as existing copies of prior versions, which distributor New Era Interactive Media has said must be pulled from shelves.
I'm not sure how much any of that will ultimately matter. Thailand's software piracy rate has hovered between 78 and 80 percent for years, though that's down in recent years from as high as 87 percent in 1994, according to the BSA.
What we don't know? Much else about this case. So rather than speculate baselessly, I want to highlight the insanity of what we do know. And I mean insanity as a euphemism for that word preceded by the adjective total.
Some nut allegedly robbed and killed a taxi driver, the police claim he's blaming Grand Theft Auto, prompting the government of Thailand to completely ban the series.
One guy, one murder, a police statement alleging that the teen blames it all on a video game, and hilariously bad coverage suggesting it could get worse before it gets better and that "the incident makes GTA look like a mix of the worst elements of trashy media and crack cocaine."
Have Thailand and (at least a few in) the blogosphere gone completely bonkers?
Let's change the subject. Ever heard of something called the fallacy of misleading vividness?
1. A dramatic or "vivid" event occurs.
2. Said event is not in accordance with the majority of statistical evidence.
3. People nonetheless conclude events of this type are likely to occur.
Thailand as a whole has around 64 million people. One of those 64 million people may or may not have committed murder (remember, allegedly) of a taxi driver. Said murder may or may not have anything at all to do with the series Grand Theft Auto (remember, police statement alleging a statement made by someone who may be trying to make this about anything but his own independently depraved worldview -- after all, Grand Theft Auto is the media's favorite whipping boy).
How to handle? Prevent the other 63,999,999 people from playing it. You know, just in case.
Confession: I worry a lot. I mean, take driving. Two enormous hunks of metal hurtling in opposite directions down a two-lane highway at 60 to 70 miles per hour, and all it would take is a slight course correction by either one at the right moment to cause a net 120 to 140 miles per hour collision. Think that doesn't happen? Think again: academic studies have concluded that about 1.7% of all fatal crashes are suicides, with as many as 2.7% of fatal single-car crashes believed to be drivers with suicidal intent.
Make you sit up a little straighter next time you're cruising down a twilit highway? It probably shouldn't, but I know one thing: 1.7% to 2.7% is a heck of a lot higher, statistically speaking, than one-one-70-millionth.
Oh yeah, anyone planning to ban cars? Trucks? Highways? Driving in general?
Let's say anything from government rankling to infidelity is the cause of someone's murder spree: Should we scrap the legislative branch? Terminate the presidency? Outlaw marriage and sex?
The fallacy of misleading vividness is seductive. It drives the blogosphere (and by proxy, the mainstream media) into a feeding frenzy. It ignores statistics because statistics aren't sexy. It ignores demographic realities because demographic realities don't generate hits.
Thailand's police system needs to bring this taxi driver's murderer to justice. But the rest of us need to be thinking about two things:
1. The stupendous folly of Thailand's government for banning a game based on unproven allegations about a single person's alleged actions.
2. The fallacy of misleading vividness, and taking sweeping action on the basis of virtually no actionable evidence at all.
(Care to read more? Check out ECA blog GamePolitics' Thailand coverage here.)
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So I wonder if they will list what brand of clothes, toiletries, and food/beverages the alleged perpetrator uses so we can also avoid using those items....the alleged murder could have been triggered by a combination of all those things plus playing the video game, too. Can't be too safe, right? (sarcasm intended)
I think the media and the government forget two important things. Millions of stable adults (and even kids who technically should have the game since they are not 17+, but their mom bought the game anyway even after being advised by the store manager of the material of the game [ my room mate manages a GameStop and sees this happen over and over even though he is very avid about the parent not buying the game for their kid]) play the game with no adverse effects. I think prescription drugs have worse side effects then Entertainment does. If your going to kill someone, I doubt GTA or another piece of work is going to be the thing that pushes you over the edge.