Reading Microsoft's response in the Financial Times (requires registration) cynically, one can't help but wonder whether the Redmond-based company wishes Sony had kept it's yap shut. "We have made no such announcement," said Microsoft. "Games are what are driving consumers to purchase game consoles and we remain focused on providing the largest library of blockbuster games available." Which they have, if we judge purely on the basis of software units moved.
The questions now, as I see them, are as follows:
- Does Microsoft view Blu-ray as critical technology in terms of high definition (and true 1080p) hardware video playback? I think the answer to this comes down to where Sony's surge in PS3 sales in January came from, and whether that surge continues in the absence of corresponding video game sales.
- Does Microsoft recognize that doing 1080p -- even streaming -- by download as opposed to physical media is a fool's errand for another half decade (or longer)? Downloadable content as complementary = fabulous. But downloadable content as stand-in for physical media is insanity. Unless you want to also bundle in a cheap 10 Terabyte drive. Lost Season Three alone could probably fill up a good sized chunk of a 1 Terabyte spindle (and don't try to convince me I don't need 1080p -- I do, and I'm not going back, thanks for asking).
- Can Microsoft get a standalone player to market in the $250-$300 range? I was at Best Buy yesterday and noticed a standalone Sony Blu-ray drive going for $400. A quick scan of Google Shopping suggests that unless you're going refurbished, that's about as cheap as they currently get. And remember, Microsoft has to pay Sony a license fee to use the technology.
- Is this even the right cycle? Wired speculates that it isn't. I think it is, but that's based mostly on what I continue to view as a jaw dropping, unexpected sales surge in PS3 players in January. Microsoft can market the 360 as a games machine that happens to play standard definition DVDs all it likes, but if people are ready to go high def en masse in 2008 to complement the current flat screen feeding frenzy, the lack of a legitimate high def player is going to cripple the 360. I have friends and relatives who prefer the 360's library, but -- heedless of my advice -- have been springing for PlayStation 3's simply because they want Blu-ray now (that HD DVD is history).
- Internal versus external. Note to Microsoft -- external. If you really want to offer a Super Duper Elite-Ain't-Half-The-Cool-In-This-Thing version, go for it, but disenfranchise your existing base at your peril. If Microsoft releases a standalone player first, it'll sell as well as bricks, unless they sell it at price parity with the cheapest iteration of the PlayStation 3, which you and I know ain't gonna happen.
Put it this way -- if Microsoft releases a standalone player, I'll pick one up the second it's available. Internal player? Not until whatever comes after this generation of game machines.
Replay
Agree? Disagree? Have your say below in comments, visit Wake the Happy Words for expanded dialogue, or pelt me with emails here.
why would you need a blu-ray player for the 360 when you already have a PS3?? seriously, people are so hyped up about blu-ray, when in about 3-5 years HVD disks are going to blow it clear out of the water with its 3.9 TB storage space. then what are you going to say? woe is blu-ray we need HVD! get over it, its just a disk, and a disk that holds very big boring games that dont even play well... the movies arent even that much clearer than what you could BURN onto a DVD. so all i can say is wow, i cant believe people would want it for the 360 when they could just go out and buy the PS3 for its meager other features as well, then they get good games for the 360 and movie playback on the PS3.
hey yuff, i think thats what has been happening - thats why the PS3 got some extra sales. people probably had the 360 and if they had the money - they waited until bluray was new HD format and bought a PS3 (unless they were anti brand switchers).
your hvd sounds nice. but i want whats available now. the best hi-def, quality, features, compatibility, etc. which should also last more than a year or two next to my tv. which i don't think the wii or the 360 is going to do since they are already talking about new systems.
i'll buy new nintendo, sony, microsoft products if its good (and maybe support your new hvd). gotta be the 1st one on the street to have it right? then i'll rub it in everyone's face! (isnt that a sin?) unless it gets obselete.
then i would get moded. yes, moded. lol.
There won't be a BD add-on for Xbox 360. The system doesn't need BD. The HD DVD add-on sold around 200,000 units, and BD won't do much better. Microsoft is planning support for BD in Windows. Maybe just maybe BD will be the drive in the next Xbox. Only PS3 fans think Xbox 360 needs BD. Xbox 360 has all the best games this generation so it doesn't need to add BD. Developers are not going to make 360 BD games for a small number of gamers. A BD add-on would be for movies only; but Xbox 360 is a "game console". The so called PS3 "surge" occured just after HD DVD dropped out of the format war, and it also coincided with a hardware shortage for Wii and Xbox 360. PS3 will not sustain the high sales numbers as it will still be the most expensive game console by far.
Finally..the death of the X-box it nearing. A POS system to begin with that stresses grapics and power over great games. If I was Sony I would refuse to license the blu-ray technology to microsoft at ALL therefore killing the crap pile that is the Xbox for good.