2007 - Year of the Wii, 2008 - Wait and See
Media market analyst Screen Digest predicts that in the console wars, Nintendo will win 2007 "convincingly," with a nod to "the market climate [changing] significantly" in 2008.
What changes (or starts to) in approximately 15 days? "Whereas in 2007 Nintendo has succeeded in expanding the appeal of the Wii to different consumers, including more females and older consumers to drive adoption, Sony’s pipeline of exclusive content and the launch of multi-media services may result in a significant uplift for the PlayStation 3 in 2008," said Screen Digest's senior games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls.
Rolls says a market shift to eyeball in 2008 will be the evolution of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 from game consoles to multi-media hubs. "Now that these multi-media services -- online video, IPTV, digital terrestrial TV and PVR functionality -- are now available or poised to come on line in different markets, this ‘hub’ strategy is emerging as a key console battleground for Microsoft and Sony," concluded Harding-Rolls.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: Don't hitch your horse to the hardware only. Microsoft's beating the snot out of Sony and Nintendo in software sales and keeping apace, relatively speaking, with Nintendo in U.S. console unit sales. Software, software, software. I can't say that enough. If you sell a bazillion consoles and snap up a bazillion developers but only sell the same one or two games in volume, you're essentially sitting on an extremely popular paperweight.
I don't mean to harsh on Nintendo, but I'd feel a lot less like the Wii were the video game analogue of the U.S. housing market (or the dot-com bubble) if Nintendo wasn't trading second and third place for software sales with Sony's PlayStation Cee (stands for 'caboose').
People who pick up hardware but the same one or two software titles (ahem, Wii Play) are either once-in-a-blue-moon gamers or waiting (with increasing impatience) for something really actually great to turn up. Go Mario, go Zelda, go Metroid, etc. But firstly, where's the new property stuff? Is Nintendo going to rest on its MarioZeldaMetroid laurels until fanboys fly? And second, if I were hedging Nintendo-only console-wise, I'd be boiling to give Ratchet & Clank Future or BioShock or Assassin's Creed a try. Some of the best games going are showing up on the competition's hardware. That's a problem all the classic Nintendo-styled games in the world can't remedy.
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Wow, you really don't get it, do you Matt? You're trying to compare completely different markets. A typical Wii buyer has absolutely no interest in games like Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, or any of those games. They're life consuming, and far too complex for the typical wii player. What Nintendo has managed to do is rediscover the market that Sony and Microsoft tried the destroy... that is the casual gaming market. The beauty of the Wii, and in particular the Wii sports package is that a typical game doesn't require the user to quit their job, drop out of school, or install a gaming commode in their living room in order to simply win a game. It's the gaming system for those of us that actually find it fun to pop in for a quick five minute game of tennis.
As for the Xbox and PS3 being used as a media center... that might be fine for those that play games on those systems already, but the non-gaming consumer will find the system too complicated to use. AppleTV is closer, but not quite.
I dont even know why I read this article. This nonsense is just frustrating. Now the Wii is being compared to the housing bubble or the dot-com bubble. Except there is a major financial difference between them. In both bubbles the financing was done with debt, with the expectation that either the homes would appreciate or the dot-coms would become profitable.
Nintendo is accruing no debt associated with the sale of Wii's. They are in fact making a profit with the sale of every console. Given this fact, Nintendo does not need to have top market share - let me repeat this for Matt who clearly doesnt get it, NINTENDO DOES NOT NEED TO HAVE TOP MARKETSHARE. The fact that they do is what makes their valuation double that of SONY. But if they didnt the Wii would still have been an enormous success from a financial standpoint. The fact that you and the equity analysts that you are citing dont get that demonstrates why one should never invest based on the mumbling of these idiots.
Slow down there salviati, you're taking my obviously glib comparison and reading something more deeply financial or economics theory-related than was intended. You say 'dot-com' and most people hear "artificially high." That's all I'm saying, that the Wii's prospects for sustained success may not be as glowing as they seem when you look at *all* the relevant figures.
And who says the Wii can't be a success in second or third place? Not me.
Good lord, the blogosphere sure does churn out some utter garbage. Casual gamer V hardcore gamer is a myth. This whole casual gaming thing only exists in the minds of journos. In reality people just play games. Some games are complex and lengthy like Super Mario Galaxy, Metriod Corruption or Zelda. Some are short and snappy like Brain Training. All Nintendo Will games by the way. I like watching 2hr movies and 30 mins TV series, so am I a casual watcher or a hardcore watcher? Doesn't make sense does it! The other thing that cracks me up is the media hub thing. Let's get some facts straight here, Wii is fully wifi out of the box, Wii can play youtube vidoes on my big TV out of the box. Will can stream my iTunes library to my home sound system, Wii has an online shop for buying games, Will has some really cool online channels built in, like Mii voting. Wii has Opera browser built in out of the box. I don't need PVR got Sky +. Don't need DVD got a great DVD player. Media Hub, so 90's
Speaking as a "casual gamer", I definitely prefer wii. I feel that the wii itself has great games to offer for me, tried halo, gow, hell even viva pinata that's supposedly for the "casual gamer", but none appealed to me. Don't get me wrong, i'm sure that there are other people that like it, certainly name value helps (Microsoft), but the wii has so much more to offer for me. And please don't stereotype, casual gamers don't play "once in a blue moon" either. I am sole example of that. I love playing wii sports, wii play, warioware, brain age: wii degree and so on. Why? Because they're fun. And yes, I like Zelda too. It's different, innovative, and requires stradegy and wit. I like that too. Therefore; wii appeals to me in different ways and offers great gameplay.
And yes, wii channels are AWESOME ^-^
It's fun to watch the Nintendroids get all riled up if you dare challenge the assumption that the Wii will remain a runaway hit.
I completely agree with Matt on this one - where are the stellar AAA (or heck, even AA) titles for the Wii? Casual or Hardcore, the only real, bona fide (can't say that two-word mini-phrase without conjuring up images of George Clooney's cute-as-a-button daughters in "Oh Brother, Where are thou?") software successes on the Wii are Nintendo's mainstay games. But after a while, even the die-hards are going to eventually grow weary of the 15th iteration of the little plumber who could. You can see the title now, "Mario 18: So Very Tired."
Right now, the Wii seems to be churning down the same path as its forebear, the Gamecube. This all looks disturbingly familiar. Thankfully I'm primarily a PC gamer and have a plethora of amazing games to enjoy this fall and on into the future, by the looks of it. :)
Wytefang, I'm glad your so concerned about the games Wii owners are buying, and I'm perplexed as to why you think console owners care how much fun your having with your PC games.
Life goes on - the the OP, there is no simple way to sum it up, but from a financial perspective - Nintendo is gaining, in fact their so in the green, theirs a rumor going around that the DS might be able to pring money, at this pace maybe the Wii too.
Incase you don't pay attention to NPD, nintendo DS+Wii cornered the market on software sales. at a 4:6 ratio.
I believe a 8.7 attach rate for this system is quite enough - unless you want everyone to buy 16 titles. This system is here today, if its gone tommorow then oh well - so who gets the egg on their face?
BTW I'm keeping perspective with Decembers information - as a reporter you should of known these things before posting. To put it plainly everything you said was the opposite of what is.