I'm inviting flaming brands, pitchforks, a noose, and a swinging trapdoor for saying so, but, well, you do remember Halo 3 sold $300 million (or some 5 million copies) worldwide in its first sales week, and $170 million (some 2.83 million copies) in the US on its first day alone, yes? It's much too soon to say "told you so," but while George Harrison of Nintendo may be correct (I haven't double-checked) that with 500,000 units sold in the US, Super Mario Galaxy had "the strongest one-week debut of any Wii game to date and has also become the best-selling Mario title ever in its first week," those opening numbers don't bode well for the most important holiday release on a system that's closing in on the hardware install base of its only real competitor in the U.S., the Xbox 360.
A rough guesstimate based on initial European (it debuted at #5) and Japanese sales (a shockingly low 251,000) suggests SMG's worldwide first week take is probably still shy of one million units sold.
He can fly! But can this lovable little guy outrace hardware shortages and blockbuster software sales competitors?
Greg Howson in the UK blogs about the game's less than stellar debut on UK sales charts at number five, asking the question "Mario Galaxy sales less than super?"
I'm not trying to knock everyone's favorite comeback kid, and for the record, I personally love Nintendo (maybe even more than you do, whoever you are preparing to burn me in effigy) but I wanted to pose some counterpoint to the predictable media gloss-job you'll find if you do a Google News search on the game title.
Now factor in the critical retail shortage of Wii systems, which ABC's Ashley Phillips rightly posits as easy make-up sales for the Xbox 360 and a potential gap-filler for the beleaguered PlayStation 3, and is Nintendo actually, dare I say it, in trouble?
Nothing spells success like spectacular demand (and no one's arguing the Wii doesn't have it), but nothing hastens knife-sharpeners like a lack of supply. It's happened plenty of times before, with calamitous short and arguably repercussive long-term effects. Remember the Xbox 360 drought of 2005? The Sony PlayStation 2 slim-line shortage in 2004? Don't mistake the media hype for a Good Thing (unless it's a PR stunt, which neither of those were, it only exacerbates the problem). To quote Slate's Tim Harford referencing economist Kenneth McLaughlin of City University, "despite their suspicious regularity, the shortages benefit nobody." I wholeheartedly concur.
So yes, Super Mario Galaxy is getting the best reviews (or at least review scores) not just of any Mario game, but of any game across any platform, including the PC, ever. And yes, breaking your own long-past sales records is surely worth tooting about. But the real question is, can Nintendo turn in sustained sales to beat here-and-now juggernauts like Halo 3 while simultaneously bringing the hardware into the channel quick enough to gratify currently Wii-less gamers marching to stores, as I write, for this game alone.
First off, Nintendo Wii has already outsold 2 years of Xbox 360 total sales in just ten months. Every major metric agrees, from NPD, to NexGenWars to VGChartz and even Nintendo's and Microsoft's own numbers.
Second, while Halo 3 helped 360 overcome beleaguered Wii supply constricted sales for one month (by less than 5%), that was only in the US. Worldwide, MS has never sold more than Nintendo in a single month of the Wii, and Nintendo also reclaimed the crown in October. This was all PRIOR TO Mario Galaxy even being released. I cannot walk into a gaming store without a parent coming in asking for a Wii and having to be told, "check back in July!"
Third, Nintendo has upped production of the Wii to 1.8 million units a month, and still has this problem.
Your article is taking the dark view, but I don't think it is justified. Nintendo's momentum is unstoppable at present. Early next year, they have Smash Bros. Brawl for the hard core and Wii Fit for the casuals...
I would add, demand on Amazon.com for the Wii is four times what it is for the Xbox 360.
And I have both.
And you may be right jmm36. I only take the "dark" view, as you say, to play devil's advocate beneath what by any other metric always at least tends to appear to be a Nintendo tidal wave.
First off, it would help if you used numbers that were comparable, or even correct. The 500,000 units sold first week for Galaxy is U.S. only, so why do you compare it to Halo 3's worldwide sales total? According to NPD, Halo 3 sold 3.3 million copies in the September reporting period, which amounted to twelve days of sales data [nearly 2 weeks].
Second, you have to take into account that the 360 has a current American install base of ~7 million whereas Wii has sold only ~5 million systems in the U.S. That's a pretty significant difference in their respective install bases.
Third, Microsoft's ability for promotion is pretty much unmatched in the games business, and there's no way you could say that the marketing behind Galaxy has been comparable in any way shape or form to what MSFT did for Halo 3.
The only Galaxy numbers that are depressing and actually worth worrying about are the Japanese ones. Any way you spin it, *these* numbers are fantastic.
I'm not trying to suggest that Galaxy will outsell Halo 3 LTD in America, because I doubt it will. Worldwide, possibly, but the only game that has a legitimate shot at Halo 3 numbers in the U.S. alone is Brawl. It's just that painting Galaxy's numbers as anything but positive, even in direct comparison to Halo 3, is ridiculous.
Thanks mpm, I just fleshed out the U.S. vs. worldwide context. It actually makes things look less positive, to my eye, doing the additional comparisons.
You're wrong to make too much of the install base at this point, though. It absolutely doesn't explain away the an opening week sales disparity of at least several million in the U.S. alone.
Fair point about marketing though. Halo 3 = most overhyped, most over-marketed game in recent memory.
XBox360 is a hard-core gamers console and the Wii is more for casual gamers. I'd expect any big name 360 title to instantly sell to the whole user base. With the Wii, I think the console is less for hobbyists so game sales will be slower.
When I read stuff like this it really boggles my mind how narrow most of the commentary on videogaming is. Regardless of how Nintendo performs from here on out, they have already changed the rules of the game. Microsoft and Sony have to respond to their shareholders, and their shareholders care primarily about profits, market share is secondary, especially if it comes at an astronomical loss. Nintendo is making a profit on every single Wii it sells and it is still by a long shot the cheapest next gen machine on the market. Whether they are first, second or third is going to be irrelevant because in three years they will produce at a profit a gaming platform that outperforms the hardware of PS3. Furthermore you will be able to buy it at the same price as a PS3. Nintendo pulled off a brilliant move whose impact will be felt in the industry from here on, the only people who are missing it are those who have no concept that videogaming is not just fun and games, its a business.
"XBox360 is a hard-core gamers console and the Wii is more for casual gamers. I'd expect any big name 360 title to instantly sell to the whole user base. With the Wii, I think the console is less for hobbyists so game sales will be slower." I think this is a great point. Excellent thought! Thats all.
OK, I'll expound a little. Hardcore gamers are kinda of like what Digipen (a video game school in WA) was full of; all of those people will wait in line overnight to be the first to play a game. Most people who own a Wii... well, they'll go buy a game on some night when they have some free time or are having people over. Normal people have other things to do besides play video games.
Overall, I think this is a great point, and is something I have neither thought of or read up til this point. Good one seanyboy.
Great blog with lots of useful information and excellent commentary! Thanks for sharing.
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