Wii, DS, and Guitar Hero III Dominate October Sales
Crack a bottle or two Nintendo and Activision, because for all the Halo 3 hype, October belonged to the Wii and Guitar Hero III according to NPD's just-released sales data for last month. What's more, Guitar Hero III launches on October 28, giving it all of four days to sell 1.4 million copies, an astounding number given the fact that Halo 3 had just four weeks to sell 433,800. Halo 3's momentum was mostly front-loaded, in other words.
October Console Sales
519,000 - Nintendo Wii
458,000 - Nintendo DS
366,000 - Xbox 360
286,000 - PlayStation Portable
184,000 - PlayStation 2
121,000 - PlayStation 3
Analysis: The Wii regains its top spot from the Xbox 360, which briefly unseated Nintendo's financial pit bull at the end of September with the release of Halo 3. The DS continues to secure top positioning with an overall install base that's the envy of every other console save the PS2, and the PS2? Continuing to outsell the PS3 nearly one year after the latter's launch, no doubt to Sony's double-sided delight/chagrin.
No sign of the Xbox 360 Arcade in these numbers, since it debuted too late in October to make much of an impact. Look for it to (impact) or not when November's data is in. Also, If you're wondering why no PS3 price spike, it's because we have yet to see the sales impact from the system's price cut in the U.S., which occurred in November, not October.
October Software Sales
433,800 - Halo 3 (360)
383,200 - Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/guitar (360)
286,300 - Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/guitar (Wii)
271,000 - Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock w/guitar (PS2)
263,000 - Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS)
240,000 - Wii Play w/Remote (Wii)
238,000 - Half-Life 2: Orange Box (360)
232,000 - Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (PS2)
130,000 - FIFA Soccer '08 (PS2)
117,000 - Brain Age 2 (DS)
Analysis: Halo 3 is still beating Guitar Hero 3 in overall sales (see chart below), but it just goes to show that broad, name-brand appeal and multi-format are where cash windfall's lie when leveraging total sales against multi-console market penetration (it's also, in my opinion, why denouncements of unified consoles are both philosophically and economically spurious).
Don't be surprised if Guitar Hero III eventually surpasses Halo 3 in units sold once the latter hits its saturation point. Remember, the Xbox 360 is still limited to an 8+ million U.S. install base two years after its inception. Halo 3 has the same problem the original Halo did, i.e. an as-yet limited install base.
NPD's Anita Frazier notes:
Guitar Hero has certainly established itself among the elite video games properties. Very few games sell in excess of 1 million units in their first month in market, but Guitar Hero III did easily with combined sales of 1.4 million units in only 6 days.
Year-to-Date Software Sales (by franchise)
3.7m - Halo 3
3.2m - Madden NFL '08
2.8m - Guitar Hero II
2.5m - Wii Play w/Remote
2.1m - Pokemon Diamond
1.5m - Pokemon Pearl
1.4m - Spider-Man 3
1.4m - Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock
Analysis: Total year-to-date video game sales are at $1.1 billion, an impressive 73 percent bump over last year's $643 million owing to strong hardware sales and related A-tier software releases. It's a similar story for hardware sales, which at $469.7 million more than doubled last year's $207.1 million.
Holiday predictions wild guesses for...
Sony: The PS3 price drop and new model positioning should boost sales of the system over the next 6-8 weeks, possibly up to Xbox 360 levels (but not Nintendo Wii). Also, watch for Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Haze, and Unreal Tournament III (along with the outstanding Ratchet & Clank) to compete favorably with Mass Effect and Halo 3 in software sales. PS3 placement for November and December? Still third in hardware and software sales, trailing Nintendo and Microsoft.
Microsoft: If Halo 3 was Microsoft's star performance, Mass Effect is the holiday encore. While the latter has much more of a niche RPG-head appeal, it's probably the most anticipated game of the year by anyone who dug Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic and/or Jade Empire. In any case, expect the Xbox 360 to take the silver in hardware sales (though by a relatively narrow margin over Sony) and the gold by a handsome margin in holiday software sales.
Nintendo: The company's set to maintain its hardware pole position through the end of the year, driven that much higher by Super Mario Galaxy which just launched this week. But while Italian Plumbers in Space should keep the Wii well out of Sony's reach, expect Nintendo to rate a distant second in holiday software sales.
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Xbox, for lack of a better phrase has shot its wad and is done. MS in their shortsightness to avoid a class action lawsuit basically poisoned their own brand viability by telling consumers you may be product that will die early but we won't tell you which ones are bad - the extended warranty is nice but but that's like saying I'm giving you an STD but free medical care. XBox is dead as a brand other than to PC games who remember the days of vuruses and Dll problems. Halo 3 is a nice FPS but it will never be more than a niche game - a money maker sure but selling 10-25 million like Mario? Not going to happen. BY end of 2008, Xbox will be third AGAIN. But then going first like Atari with Jaguar & Sega with DReamcast only buys you a lead in the beginning and worthless after. But as long as MS shareholders don't mind pouring billions into a losing proposition - it'll still be out there but as with each generation - from XBox to 360, we see fewer & fewer MS fans.
im going to have to agree with you good show
although actually theres a rumor that 2 new dreamcast games are coming out this 2008 weird huh and by rumor i mean its a game coming out for other consles and sega/nintendo want to put it on the dreamcast too
Shot it's Wad? NO WAY! The 360 is far from done. With hundreds of great next gen games, Xbox Live, down loadable movies, games, demos, TV shows and more, it is an excellent entertainment value. The Wii is a Fad and not even HD! PS3 gave up backward compatibility and still doesn't have a decent Library of Games. Don't forget Gears of War 2 will be out next year! And Halo is far from over...