The Radiohead Experiment, One Month Later

Internet research group Comscore caused a stir yesterday when they published the results of a study that showed that in the first 29 days of October, 38% of the people who downloaded In Rainbows didn't pay a dime. It seems to be universally agreed that, given the choice, most people will opt for free stuff. Quelle surprise.

But the real question is, did the band make money? Probably. According to the study, 1.2 million people visited the Radiohead site during the study's time frame, and "a significant percentage" downloaded the album. For the sake of rounding, let's say that 1 million people downloaded it; were this a CD release, Radiohead would have made something like $2 million (only their lawyers know for sure, but I've read estimates that say that bands make anywhere from $1 to $3 per CD sale). If only 380,000 people paid for their downloads, then each buyer would have had to pay $5.26, on average, for the band to make the same money.

According to the study, the average price paid was $6. I'd say Radiohead didn't do too badly.

Granted, there are a number of other potential factors at play here, including the fact that this is only the first month of what is, for most of the buyers, a first-time experience. If this practice becomes more commonplace, how will that affect long-term buyer behavior?

Finally, I'm curious about something that no one seems to have asked: had the album been released traditionally, how many people would have gotten it for free (via P2P, or good old-fashioned duping) anyway? It's unknowable, really, but a reminder that the 62% figure for freeloaders may not be that remarkable.